What Difference Does One Vote Make?
Monday, 18 March 2024
Two stories that really are, first appearances to the contrary notwithstanding, logically connected:
Story One
Norman Bigham and Martha Bigham
True story: A number of years ago—in 1996—a friend of ours who we admired greatly, Norman Bigham, died. He had taught our son in high school, as had Martha Bigham, Norman’s wife—both were popular teachers and Michael’s favorites. After his wife died in 1988 and he retired, Norman Bigham ran for and won a seat on the Cobb County school board—donating his entire board salary to the Martha Bigham scholarship fund. He became chair of the board before he died. He was a great guy and a good school board member.
When he died suddenly, a special election was held to choose who would serve the rest of his term. We took this seriously and I called some of the several candidates running and quizzed them about what they would and wouldn’t do as school board members. Diane and I discussed this with each other with some care and arrived at a choice we both supported.
Fast forward a few weeks later to election day—one with only one race on the ballot and in only one school board district—and that drew little media fanfare. Driving along after running a local errand, Diane turned to me and said, “Isn’t today when we’re supposed to vote for school board?” I had forgotten, but we turned around and went and voted. (It didn’t take long—turnout was light.)
When the vote was counted, the guy we voted for won with exactly 50 percent of the vote total plus one vote. If either of us had skipped the vote, the county would have had to have a runoff election, with all the expense and hassle that that meant—and probably with the same winner. Every vote cast mattered.
When I called the winner up to congratulate him, I said, “I’m probably not the only one who’s going to tell you that you owe your election to me.” He laughed and allowed as how he had indeed already heard that line.
Story Two
The first part of this second story, except for a changed name, is also true. The second part could come true in November of this year. I think you’ll see the connection.
An acquaintance—let’s call him “Anthony Toosmartforhisowngood,” or AT, for short—is , unlike me, not a socialist or a Democrat. When I read that the “No Labels” Party might nominate former Georgia Lt. Governor, a Republican named Geoff Duncan, I got to wondering whether Duncan being on the ballot would hurt or help Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
And I decided that AT might help me figure it out. So, AT and I had a very brief text conversation (quoting it exactly here)—
Me: Joe Biden (D), Geoff Duncan, or Donald Trump (R)?
AT: Never Chump and I don’t have to get drunk and hold my nose to vote for Duncan. Won’t affect the outcome but no shame voting for the best of the 3.
Later—
Me: If no choice but Trump and Biden, you’d …. ?
AT: Get drunk hold my nose and vote against Trump
Remember, “AT” is a conservative-to-moderate Republican who is disgusted with Trump. He deserves an honorable alternative he can live with, right?
Fast forward again, this time to November of this year. And imagine that every state in the United States except Georgia splits exactly fifty-fifty, with Biden winning 261 Electoral College votes and Trump winning 261 Electoral College votes. It comes down to who wins Georgia’s 16 Electoral College votes.
And keep in mind, the rules say that whatever candidate (party’s electors, strictly speaking) gets the most votes, no matter how close it is, gets all 16 Electoral College votes.
In the 2020 election, Biden won Georgia by a tiny margin, 2,473,633 (49.47%) to 2,461,854 (49.24%).*
Imagine that on 5 November 2024, Biden gets, not counting AT and his wife, 2,461,234 (49.865%) Georgia votes. And that Trump gets, not counting AT and his wife, 2,461,234 (49.865%) Georgia votes. And Geoff Duncan of “No Labels,” gets, not counting AT and his wife, 12,345 (0.25%) votes, with another thousand or so votes cast for Libertarian or Green Party nominees.
If AT and his wife somehow knew all this in advance, how should they vote?
They could make Geoff Duncan proud and make him the winner of 12,347 votes—still 0.25%.
They could make Joe Biden proud and make him the winner of 2,461,236 votes—still 49.865%, but a touch more in the fourth decimal place—and re-elected President of the United States.
Or, they could make “Never Chump” proud and make him the winner of 2,461,236 votes—still 49.865%, but a touch more in the fourth decimal place—and re-elected President of the United States.
So, sorry, AT—and sorry “No Labels”—but your vote can “affect the outcome”—just as the votes Diane and I cast for school board in the late 1990s did.
And if you forget to vote (or vote for any third party), not the result could include not just the troublesome cost of a runoff election, but nation-wide—in fact, world-wide—chaos.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Georgia#
And last year, I wrote on this subject from a different angle. If you missed it for some reason, here ‘tis—
The Evil of Two Lessers: Who You Should Support for Prez to Stop the Duopoly (Helpful Hints)
It’s just around the corner—well, a bit over a year away to the general election, but much less than that to primaries, etc.—when you personally decide who the US President will be starting in January 2025 (damn, I’m old). So I’m here to help you decide, just like I know you’re desperate to have me do.
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In WWII, every Briton was encouraged to "Do your bit." That is how I see voting. If each person does his/her bit, remarkable things can be accomplished.
The value, in some locations, of a single vote, has been proven repeatedly. Your story is a perfect illustration. In Hawaii, I accompanied my wife as she went door to door speaking with neighbors on behalf of a legislative candidate. He ran against a well-known local columnist whose wife, also a local columnist, was a prior beauty queen. When the votes were tallied, our favored, less glamorous, but hard-working, candidate, won by less than 20 votes. He later became the Governor’s Chief of Staff.