A few months ago, I grandiosely and, as I knew even then, foolishly, made my predictions on an election that was then a nice round six months in the future. Today, almost certainly just as foolishly, I issue my 100-days-to-go predictions. (OK, 99 days to go.)
And, of course, it’s worth noting that I’ve now—recently!—turned omniscient:
In exactly 99 days, the general election in the US will be over and most of the votes will be counted. Here are some predictions, necessarily still dicey this far ahead even for an omniscient old guy, about things up to and on election day—5 November 2024. This is what I think will have happened by 6 November.
Just as I said back in May, odds are good that you find at least one of my predictions laughably naive. In fact I predict (again) that you’ll guffaw at more than one. I’m making well over a hundred predictions below—not just who will be elected prez, but what percent of the vote in Maine’s 1st Congressional District Trump will draw, for example. If you want to compete with me, and I’d welcome that, make predictions on all the same bits I have—not just who’ll win Oklahoma, but with what percentage—and don’t wait till another month or two has passed to predict—these are 99-days-out predictions. Not valid with any other offer.
Hamas and Israel will finally agree on 23 September 2024 CE to a sustained—but not “permanent”—cease fire, including significant number of additional hostages and prisoners being released. Peace will remain elusive.
Putin-led Russia will still be attacking Ukraine, but Ukraine will be stronger in defense than it is now, with a growing and apparently reasonable chance to win victory over Russia.
Student protesters on college campuses will still be at it in the fall, but in substantially smaller numbers and with less news coverage.
The Trump “hush money”/election fraud case didn’t go as I predicted wrongly in May (result in a hung jury mistrial). Instead, 34 guilty verdicts! These are being appealed and this will still be unresolved until after the election—but the Democrats will bring up these convictions 2.87 billion times in the next 99 days—count on it.
The case against Trump in Fulton County, GA, will still be dragging on until after Election Day.
The case against Trump about mishandled classified documents will be unresolved, even though Judge Aileen Cannon threw it out a couple of weeks ago. For more, see: https://verdict.justia.com/2024/07/24/judge-cannons-ruling-dismissing-the-trump-case-suffers-from-constitutional-myopia-with-respect-to-the-proper-role-of-a-district-court-judge .
I predicted that the US Supreme Court would send the presidential immunity case back to the lower courts and the trial of Trump on insurrection would not yet be even close to being concluded in November. Another one I didn’t really get right in May— According to Robert Weissman & Lisa Gilbert, Co-Presidents of Public Citizen, here’s where things stand:
On July 1, the Supreme Court — in a case brought by Donald Trump — ruled that U.S. presidents are immune from prosecution for otherwise illegal actions they take as part of their official duties (with “official” being defined so loosely that it could cover just about anything).
By granting this sweeping power to break the law with impunity, the Supreme Court’s profoundly misguided ruling contrived an above-the-law status for American presidents heretofore associated with foreign despots, dictators, and kings.
Ironically, three days later the American people celebrated Independence Day, when we commemorate winning our freedom — two and a half centuries ago — from the very kind of tyrannical monarchy the Supreme Court ruling threatens to revive.
Reading the majority opinion on the day it was issued was sickening — physically and spiritually.
Trump didn’t name Senator Ted Cruz as his running mate, as I had predicted, but it’s looking as if his actual pick, J.D. Vance, may be even less helpful to the Republicans. Kamala Harris will choose Josh Shapiro of PA as her
runner-uprunning mate. He’ll handle J.D. Vance in debate pretty well.The Democratic Convention in Chicago in August will be vigorously protested, despite—or partly because of—the switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris, but there will be minimum newsworthy moments and with little impact on the polls, unlike what happened in 1968.
The US economy will stay very strong, with some troubling inflation in some parts of the economy; general public perception of this will remain distorted.
Summer will continue to be miserably hot across the US; the threats that come from global climate change will be more apparent and intense.
Perhaps my worst May prediction: “Biden and Trump will have three debates; Biden will hold up fairly well in these—a gaffe or two but no disasters; Trump will have outrageous moments, and his MAGA base will relish this.” I now predict that Trump will try to duck prosecutor Harris but will finally give in—and that Harris will make him look old and weak—and that that will tip the election to her.
The Dems will retain a very narrow edge (50-50 plus the VP’s vote) in the US Senate.
The Dems will gain a narrow edge (221-217) in the US House; Hakeem Jeffries will become Speaker of the House next year.
Bernie Sanders will endorse Harris for election.
Trump will not concede the election and will bring multiple lawsuits claiming the election was stolen. None of the suits will succeed. Major riots will not break out.
Some famous people—and some infamous ones, too—will die in the next 99 days —mark my words.
The presidential election will go as follows. (ECVs=Electoral College Votes—takes 270 to win. Most states are winner-take-all: whatever candidate gets a plurality, no matter how big or small, gets all the ECVs. Maine and Nebraska award some of their ECVs by Congressional District.). Presidential election predictions by State/DC/districts (you will notice that Substack doesn’t offer a crisp “tab” mechanism—at least not one I can find):
State D% R% ECVs State or District Winner
Alabama 42 54 9 Trump
Alaska 47 51 3 Trump
Arizona 51 47 11 Harris
Arkansas 39 61 6 Trump
California 66 31 54 Harris
Colorado 55 42 10 Harris
Connecticut 59 39 7 Harris
Delaware 58 39 3 Harris
Dist. of Columbia 93 6 3 Harris
Florida 49 50 30 Trump
Georgia 47 49 16 Trump
Hawaii 68 30 4 Harris
Idaho 31 66 4 Trump
Illinois 61 37 19 Harris
Indiana 44 51 11 Trump
Iowa 49 50 6 Trump
Kansas 43 55 6 Trump
Kentucky 38 60 8 Trump
Louisiana 40 57 8 Trump
Maine 53 47 2 Harris
CD1 60 34 1 Harris
CD2 45 51 1 Trump
Maryland 67 30 10 Harris
Massachusetts 67 29 11 Harris
Michigan 50 47 15 Harris
Minnesota 52 44 10 Harris
Missouri 54 43 10 Trump
Mississippi 39 56 6 Trump
Montana 44 47 4 Trump
Nebraska 40 57 2 Trump
CD1 40 56 1 Trump
CD2 53 45 1 Harris
CD3 28 69 1 Trump
Nevada 47 49 6 Trump
New Hampshire 53 45 4 Harris
New Jersey 57 40 14 Harris
New Mexico 55 42 5 Harris
New York 60 37 28 Harris
N. Carolina 49 50 16 Trump
N. Dakota 30 66 3 Trump
Ohio 42 55 17 Trump
Oklahoma 33 65 7 Trump
Oregon 58 39 8 Harris
Pennsylvania 52 46 19 Harris
Rhode Island 60 38 4 Harris
S. Carolina 43 54 9 Trump
S. Dakota 34 63 3 Trump
Tennessee 36 62 11 Trump
Texas 48 50 40 Trump
Utah 39 57 6 Trump
Vermont 66 32 3 Harris
Virginia 56 42 13 Harris
Washington 58 38 12 Harris
West Va 31 68 4 Trump
Wisconsin 50 47 10 Harris
Wyoming 32 65 3 Trump
National Totals
Harris 281 EV 86,871,546 votes 52.07% winner
Trump 257 EV 76,561,076 votes 45.89% loser
Others 0 EV 3,403,456 votes 2.04%
My map:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/kbZPG
Trump will claim, correctly, that he got more votes than he did in 2020, when he got more votes than any candidate before 2020 in US history. He will then claim that that means he won in 2020 and in 2024. He’ll be wrong.
Can Kamala Harris really win? I think she can (see above), but it’ll help a great deal if she heeds good advice like this (from Michael J. Sandel, a Harvard political science prof)—
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/27/opinion/kamala-harris-strategy.html
You Laugh, But What Do You Predict?
And last but still interesting and important. What legacy is President Joe Biden leaving?
First, a stable and dececnt, reasonable three and a half years, with major accomplishments and pluses. Recently, a graceful, timely, historic, selfless exit from the political campaign. And finally, the last half year still to come.
The best summing up I’ve seen so far came from Fareed Zacharia yesterday—
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/28/politics/video/fareeds-take-biden-economics-digvid
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